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  • Soccer Win Probability | What is this? Game State. input pre-match odds: odds format: euro us probability: win: draw: loss: input game state: Minute: Goal Difference: Results Notes-The probabilities reflect the result after regulation+stoppage time (extra time and penalty shootouts not factored in)
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  • This is done by using a portion of the Elo formula, the win expectancy. We do this because we do not really care about the teams future rating, we just care about how they are expected to preform right now. The W e in the Elo formula is the win expectancy and dr is the difference in ratings between two teams, plus 100 for the home team. This is
  • Total Goals (xG) Your estimation of total goals scored (eg. 2.5). Home Win Probability % Your estimation of home teams winning probability (1-99%). Tie Probability % Your estimation of tie probability (1-99%). Away Win Probability % Your estimation of away teams winning probability (1-99%). Overround % Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin).
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Soccer goal probabilities: Poisson vs actual distribution

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